FX rates (last) and forecasts (end 2023/end 2024)
Team
Piotr Wdowiński
Co-Founder
Piotr Wdowiński is Associate Professor and Head of The Econometrics Department at The University of Lodz, Poland. He is a former Director of The Institute of Econometrics at The University of Lodz. In the past, he used to work as an economist at The Polish Financial Supervision Authority. He is the author of monographs and scientific publications in peer-reviewed journals, the principal researcher in European Union projects, The Committee for Scientific Research and The National Science Center. He is also the editor-in-chief of The Econometric Research in Finance journal. Piotr Wdowiński specializes in econometric modelling and forecasting of macroeconomic and financial processes, financial stability and macroprudential policy. He is a lecturer in econometrics, forecasting and data science. He has considerable experience in using econometric software and Linux server systems.
Michał Rubaszek
Co-Founder
Michał Rubaszek is Associate Professor and Head of Financial Markets Modelling Unit at SGH Warsaw School of Economics. In the past, he used to work as an economic advisor in the National Bank of Poland (Research Department) as well as expert in the European Central Bank (DG Economics). His research interest covers international economics, forecasting, heterogeneous agent models and exchange rate economics. He published in International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of International Economics, European Economic Review, Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Journal of International Money & Finance and Energy Economics.
Forecasts
The Economic and Financial Forecasts IPEF system was created to help businesses and individuals manage medium-term risk related to the future dynamics of key variables. The underlying procedures are based on the results of most recent studies focusing on forecasting financial variables, which have been published in recognized academic journals. To this end, the IPEF forecasting system has been developed to provide a bridge between businesses’ needs and the findings of academic research.
All forecasts are calculated and updated automatically once a day. They are based on econometric models and the most recent information from financial markets. Calculations are done in R/Shiny statistical package.
The current version is limited to major exchange rates, however future extensions for other variables, e.g. interest rates and commodity prices are to be expected.
Disclaimer: The information provided does not constitute professional financial investment advice. The IPEF is not an investment advisor, broker or dealer and it does not rely on any insider information.
Mission
The Economic and Financial Forecasts IPEF's mission is to bridge the gap between the business needs and the findings of academic research.
Vision
The Economic and Financial Forecasts IPEF's vision is to make the best use of statistical and econometric methods to improve the quality of models and forecasts.
Forecasting systems
based on econometric models
and recent studies
Systems
Exchange rates
The IPEF exchange rate forecasting system is based on the results of a number of recent studies showing that exchange rates are predictable. They indicate that exchange rates are attracted towards their equilibrium levels. Spot exchange rates within the system are updated daily (at midnight CET) from Eurostat. Equilibrium exchange rates are updated monthly using macroeconomic data taken from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). All calculations on raw data are done by IPEF in R/Shiny statistical package. The IPEF system uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. With the IPEF system you can easily forecast exchange rates of major currencies, e.g. EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP and more. You can use the forecasts in Forex trading and FX hedging strategies.